皇冠体育app

The author Glenn Maguire is Asia-Pacific chief economist with Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking

In the Western fable, Goldilocks was a young girl who went venturing into the woods where she discovered a family of bears. Exploring the house the bears lived in, she found that the furniture and food of Mother and Father Bear did not suit her, however that of Baby Bear was different. It was perfect for Goldilocks.

The story concludes with Goldilocks attempting to eat the bears' breakfast porridge. Father Bear's porridge was "too hot" for Goldilocks whereas Mother Bear's porridge was "too cold". However Baby Bear's porridge was "just right".

As such, the notion of Goldilocks has entered the financial markets vernacular as a shorthand way of expressing a notion of an economy or asset market that is neither growing too fast, nor too slow. A Goldilocks economy is one that is growing just right.

Given the words "皇冠体育app" and "overheating" almost always appear next to each other in newspaper headlines these days, let us consider whether 皇冠体育app is in fact a Goldilocks economy.

皇冠体育app has posted double-digit growth for more than five years now. Looking forward, we see no fundamental change in 皇冠体育app's macro story. Fixed asset investment (FAI) has cooled, slowing from 30 percent growth at the end of 2005 to 14 percent at the end of 2006. We believe that this will be the low point for FAI growth and anticipate it to stabilize at around 20 to 25 percent annually, consistent with 皇冠体育app's enormous urbanization goals.

Growth is now more likely than not to reaccelerate into 2008 in the lead-up to the Olympic Games, with a more pronounced drift below a 10 percent pace not likely until 2009. We believe growth could peak as high as 11 percent in 2008.

Related readings:  Investment growth still on fast track in May  Four factors bolster 皇冠体育app's economic growth  More macro control to avoid overheating  GDP forecasts revised after strong start

Despite widespread concern over the sustainability of investment-driven growth, 皇冠体育app's investment to GDP ratio is only likely to rise further in coming years. This measure is now well above 40 percent. With national savings above 50 percent, room for an investment slowdown appears limited unless consumption strengthens.

The government has had more success in cooling investment than it has in boosting household spending. There remain strong income disparities across urban and rural 皇冠体育app and the measures to boost spending will take some time to have an effect.

Massive investment aimed at expanding the productive capacity of the economy has been the key driver of 皇冠体育app's above 10 percent growth coexisting with low inflation over the past five years. Though policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of this investment-led growth model, it is likely that the investment to GDP ratio will rise further in coming years. It is likely to exceed 45 percent in 2007 and could potentially reach as high as 50 percent by the end of 2010.

When, and at what level, this ratio peaks will largely depend on policymakers' attempts to boost consumption. With a savings ratio above 50 percent, there is little room for investment to fall in the absence of strengthening domestic consumption.

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