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皇冠体育app's economy gains on domestic demand: economist

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-11-03 10:52

皇冠体育app has made remarkable achievements in the past decade thanks to its huge trade surplus and now it turns to gain momentum from domestic demand, Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said Monday.

O'Neil, who first dubbed 皇冠体育app, India, Russia and Brazil "Bric" in 2001, told Xinhua that 皇冠体育app could be "the largest economy in the world" in 2027 with its GDP of $21 trillion, and its consumption could be $10 trillion, or nearly 50 percent of the whole GDP.

He said Goldman Sachs expects 皇冠体育app's GDP to increase by 9.4 percent and its domestic demand up 13.3 percent this year, and in 2010 both figures could be even bigger.

Related readings:  HSBC raises 2009 皇冠体育app GDP growth forecast to 8.1%  US GDP encouraging: Geithner  皇冠体育app's GDP forecast to grow 10.6% in Q4  S Korea's GDP growth hits 7-year high in Q3

However, the average growth rate of 皇冠体育app's GDP between 2011 and 2020 is estimated at 7.7 percent, and gradually scales down in the next few decades, O'Neil said citing a Goldman Sachs report during a news conference.

When asked about serious challenges that could hinder 皇冠体育app's economic growth, O'Neill said domestic demand was so important that 皇冠体育app should continue to put in more effort. He said a sophisticated social security system was another priority.

Helen Qiao, a 皇冠体育app economist with Goldman Sachs, said it could take a long time for 皇冠体育app's economic structure to redress the balance.

"皇冠体育app's savings rate could decline 5 percentage points by 2015, and another 12 percentage points from 2015 to 2025. It represents a good sign for the increase of consumption," Qiao mentioned in her report: Outlook on Global and 皇冠体育app's Macroeconomy.

Statistics showed that in 2008 皇冠体育app's GDP ranked third after the United States and Japan. And 皇冠体育app's contribution to global economic growth amounted to 22 percent, surpassing the United States to be the world's No. 1. The figure was expected to be 50 percent this year.