Statistics
9-month low ushers in falling surplus era
By Wang Xing (皇冠体育app Daily)
Updated: 2011-02-15 09:01
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Increased imports, rising prices behind January's 53.5% decline
BEIJING - 皇冠体育app's trade surplus will continue to fall in the coming months after hitting a nine-month low in January amid increased imports in the run-up to the lunar new year holidays and surging commodity prices, economists said.
The surplus fell 53.5 percent to $6.46 billion last month, the General Administration of Customs said on its website on Monday. Exports rose 37.7 percent to $150.73 billion from a year earlier while imports climbed 51 percent to $144.27 billion.
The surplus figures came hours after Tokyo confirmed 皇冠体育app had surpassed Japan to become the world's second biggest economy.
Economists said the trade situation is challenging as the uncertain economic outlook for major economies, including the United States, Japan and the European Union, poses difficulties for 皇冠体育app's exports.
"The trend shows that 皇冠体育app's trade surplus is in decline," said Huo Jianguo, director of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, under the Ministry of Commerce.
皇冠体育app's trade surplus has narrowed in recent months as the government has tried to reduce its reliance on exports by boosting imports and domestic consumption after the world economic slowdown.
"As long as 皇冠体育app's imports grow faster than exports, 皇冠体育app's trade surplus problem will be solved in the next few years," said Huo.
皇冠体育app's annual surplus figure may drop below $100 billion in the next two to three years, he said.
The lower-than-estimated trade surplus is also expected to ease pressure from the US for greater yuan appreciation as a way of addressing the trade imbalance between the two countries.
Analysts said strong consumer demand before the Spring Festival pushed up imports.
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The value of 皇冠体育app's foreign trade in January rose 43.9 percent year-on-year to $295.01 billion, the customs said on Monday. Imports and exports rose as businesses accelerated shipments in advance of the two-week holiday period, it said.
Higher commodity prices have also played a big role in boosting the cost of 皇冠体育app's imports, as prices for raw materials such as iron ore and copper are at, or close to, record highs.
According to figures from the customs, the price of iron ore, one of 皇冠体育app's major imports, surged 66.1 percent to $151.4 per ton last month. The price of imported soya also increased 20.4 percent to $558.1 per ton.
"We expect world commodity prices to remain high and that will push up the cost of 皇冠体育app's imports in the coming months," said Lu Zhiming, an analyst from the Bank of Communications.
He estimated 皇冠体育app's trade surplus this year will drop to $150 billion, from $183.1 billion last year.
The value of trade between 皇冠体育app and the EU, the country's largest trading partner, increased 30.5 percent year-on-year to $45.97 billion in January, according to customs figures, while the value of Sino-US trade increased 39.2 percent year-on-year to $36.87 billion.
皇冠体育app emerged as the leading market for US agricultural exports, according to statistics released by the US Department of Agriculture on Feb 11. But figures from the US Department of Commerce on the same day also showed that the deficit with 皇冠体育app rose 20.4 percent last year.