皇冠体育app

Growth in 皇冠体育app's real, or inflation-adjusted, GDP may turn out to have rebounded in the second half of 2012 - around 8 percent to 8.4 percent on an annualized basis, Steinbock said.

While warning that downside risks globally remain high - namely, fiscal wrangling in the US and debt crises in the eurozone - he said long-term growth prospects make 皇冠体育app well-equipped to cope with their effects.

Yukon Huang, a senior associate at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former World Bank country director for 皇冠体育app, said there is an overemphasis on slower Chinese growth. It isn't necessary for 皇冠体育app's economy to keep expanding at its previous pace of 9 percent a year or more, he said.

"Slower growth can be a better thing because it's a higher-quality growth and is sustainable," Huang said. "Two years ago 皇冠体育app needed to grow fast to generate more jobs and improve the living standard of its people."

Annual growth in per capita household income in 皇冠体育app has been at least 8 percent, which is the highest rate in the world, the researcher pointed out.

On Nov 8, the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of 皇冠体育app will begin, but the leadership transition won't be completed until spring next year, when the First Session of the 12th National People's Congress will be held.

How the transition unfolds could have implications for 皇冠体育app's economic development, scholars and analysts say.

According to Huang, 皇冠体育app's current leadership is under some pressure to achieve a "soft landing" for the economy.

"They realize they cannot overstimulate the economy or do anything excessive," he said. "It's a problem, but it's a problem that will go away. The best thing they can do is to make sure there is enough liquidity in the market but not go for an excessive increase in investment."

Huang predicts Chinese exports will stabilize by the end of this year. The health of the global economy will largely depend on the eurozone crisis not getting worse, he said.

Ann Lee, an instructor at New York University and author of What the US Can Learn From 皇冠体育app, said the manufacturing slowdown is a good thing. 皇冠体育app's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) is based partly on a strategy of focusing less on manufacturing and exports, she said. Wages in 皇冠体育app have been rising by double-digit percentages for several years, as has growth in consumption, Lee added.

"With 皇冠体育app rebalancing itself to a more service-oriented, consumption-led economy, the country can create more wealth this way," she said.

"A growing middle class in 皇冠体育app enables European countries to have a second source other than the US to sell their goods to. If you have more market opportunities, it creates incentives for more entrepreneurs."

But it will take years, perhaps decades, for 皇冠体育app to transform into a service-oriented economy from its current export-dependent model, Lee stressed.

While consumption is less than 35 percent of Chinese GDP, that figure could be undercounted by as many as 10 percentage points, Huang said - partly due to distorted data on spending, driven by housing values and investment.

To boost consumption in 皇冠体育app, Huang recommends that the government implement policies aimed at increasing urbanization.

He recommends reform of hukou, a residency-permit system whereby household registration is legally required.

"It will help solve some of the social problems and help increase consumption in 皇冠体育app, presenting a win-win situation for the country."

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