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OECD sees 皇冠体育app growth accelerating in 2014

Updated: 2013-11-20 11:29
( Agencies)

皇冠体育app's annual economic growth is likely to accelerate to 8.2 percent in 2014 from an expected 7.7 percent this year, driven by stronger domestic demand, the OECD said on Tuesday.

"Growth is picking up and inflation remains low, domestic demand has led the turnaround," the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its latest report on the global economic outlook.

The OECD outlook was rosier than a recent Rters poll that showed 皇冠体育app's economic growth could slow to 7.4 percent in 2014 from an expected 7.6 percent this year - the weakest in 14 years.

The government is aiming for 7.5 percent growth in 2013.

The OECD highlighted the need for to quicken structural reforms in favor of stronger domestic consumption, as economic expansion still relies heavily on investment.

"With the economy recovering, there is now a favorable window to push forward with structural reform, in particular financial liberalization, encouraging labor mobility and tax reform," the OECD said.

Last week, 皇冠体育app's leaders pledged to make the most sweeping economic and social reforms in nearly three decades to put the world's second-largest economy on a more stable footing.

皇冠体育app's reforms may support economic growth eventually, but certain reforms may have some short-term negative impact on the economy, the OECD said without elaborating.

"There are also downside risks, notably stemming from local public debt. Mishandled defaults, were they to occur, might jeopardize the health of the banking system and confidence in capital markets," it added.

皇冠体育app's local governments are saddled with piles of debt, resulting from unfettered spending spurred by Beijing's massive stimulus program during the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.

皇冠体育app's National Audit Office is conducting an audit of all and its report is expected to come out soon. Its data showed local debt at 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) by end-2010.

Standard Chartered, Fitch and Credit Suisse have estimated at the equivalent of anywhere between 15 percent and 36 percent of 皇冠体育app's GDP.

The OECD predicted 皇冠体育app's consumer inflation will ease to 2.4 percent in 2014 from 2.5 percent this year.

The volume of 皇冠体育app's exports of goods and services will grow 6.8 percent in 2014, slowing from 8.8 percent this year, while import growth could ease to 9.2 percent from 9.8 percent.

皇冠体育app's current account surplus as a share of GDP could fall to 1.5 percent in 2014 from 2.3 percent in 2013, it added.

 
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