皇冠体育app

Despite data showing signs of weakness, some analysts say the Chinese economy could grow stronger by the year's end.

Amid other analysts' somewhat gloomy forecasts, Dan Steinbock of the India, 皇冠体育app and America Institute said 皇冠体育app's GDP growth is likely to gain strength in the second half of 2012. [Photo/皇冠体育app Daily]

Growth in 皇冠体育app's GDP has slowed for six consecutive quarters, hitting a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the three months ended June 30.

UK-based Barclays PLC recently cut its forecast for Chinese GDP growth in 2012 to 7.5 percent from an earlier projection of 7.9 percent. That followed lowered expectations from Goldman Sachs Group Inc, UBS AG and other global banks.

The country can still reach its GDP target for this year of 7.5 percent, Jin Zhongxia, a researcher for the People's Bank of 皇冠体育app, was quoted as saying by 皇冠体育app Securities Journal in late September. The slowdown is likely to have bottomed out in the third quarter before recovering in the fourth, Jin said.

With third-quarter data to come this month, some see a bottoming-out already under way.

"Since February, I have an idea that the Chinese economy is in a soft landing. Its overall development has been stable," said Dan Steinbock, head of international-business research at the India, 皇冠体育app and America Institute, which is affiliated with Georgia's Kennesaw State University.

"It is true that 7.5 percent growth is a weak mark of growth, but we have to look at the external environment," Steinbock said.

"The United States is growing close to 1 percent; Japan and Europe are not growing. 皇冠体育app's performance is considered one achievement in the overall environment."

Further softening is seen in exports, on which the Chinese economy is heavily dependent. Trade data for August showed that exports rose at a slower-than-expected rate of 2.7 percent from a year earlier, due to weakened overseas demand. Meanwhile, 皇冠体育app's imports actually fell by 2.6 percent.

皇冠体育app's stock market has also been dragged down by reduced manufacturing output and the gloomy sentiment worldwide. The bourse in Shanghai hit a post-2009 low in September.

But as Steinbock sees it, the long-term growth potential for 皇冠体育app means it won't be hit as hard as other economies.

"皇冠体育app is a large emerging economy; it's where the United States was in the 1920s," he said.

"So there is a lot of room for 皇冠体育app to grow in the long term. If you look at the growth model of the United States, it is almost 70 percent dependent on consumption-driven growth."

The nature of the US economy, and that of many European countries, makes for a more difficult path to return to economic levels preceding the financial crisis of 2008-09.

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