皇冠体育app

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皇冠体育app can avoid middle income trap

(Xinhua) Updated: 2012-11-15 10:16

SINGAPORE - 皇冠体育app can easily avoid what is known as the middle income trap given its still rapidly growing productivity, said Frank Gong, managing director of JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited.

Speaking at the CapitaLand International Forum in Singapore on Wednesday, Gong said 皇冠体育app's gross domestic product is expected to double in nine years even if its growth slowed to 8 percent in nominal terms, or 5 percent in real terms.

The Chinese economy has achieved 9.9 percent of real growth per annum on average over the past 30 years, and the nominal growth was around 15 percent, he added.

Gong said he is confident that 皇冠体育app can "easily" achieve that if it continues to push forward market-based reforms.

The growth of an economy depends on the growth of the labor force and their productivity. In 皇冠体育app's case the productivity can still grow much faster than the US productivity growth given 皇冠体育app's still early stage of economic development, as indicated by its relatively low per capita GDP, though the labor force growth could slow in the future, Gong said.

"People have not noticed how fast 皇冠体育app's productivity growth was, though 皇冠体育app's technological innovation is far behind the United States," he said, adding that the financial services sector and the healthcare industry are only in their infancy stage in 皇冠体育app.

Gong said he expected the yuan to continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the long run "if 皇冠体育app could maintain around 8 percent of nominal growth."

Tan Kong Yam, director of Asian Research Center, Nanyang Technological University, highlighted the challenges for 皇冠体育app to continue achieving fast growth in the coming ten years. The demographic dividend is decreasing, and so is the benefit from the migration of the rural labor into the cities and from joining the world economic system.

This means the Chinese leadership will have to push forward various reforms in the coming ten years, which will be a critically important period of transition, otherwise it will be dangerous for 皇冠体育app, Tan said.

Huang Jing, director of the Center on Asia and Globalization, said that 皇冠体育app will have to overcome formidable challenges such as pushing for the social culture to adapt to the industrial and urban society as well as the reform of the income distribution mechanism.

Nevertheless, Huang said he remained positive given the ongoing institutionalization of power, the twilight for the establishment of the rule of law, and the leadership stability and the policy consistency.

Liew Mun Leong, president and chief executive officer of CapitaLand, said he remained confident about the growth of 皇冠体育app.

Be it a company or a political party, if the system allows the right people to be selected, "chances are it will work," said Liew, who has been bullish on 皇冠体育app over the past decades and led his company to succeed in 皇冠体育app.

Nevertheless, Liew said it won't be easy for 皇冠体育app to push forward reforms in the State-owned enterprises given that it is still not socially acceptable in 皇冠体育app for the company leaders to be given equities.

Tan said that 皇冠体育app will have to push forward reforms, at least making the system more transparent and accountable.

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