皇冠体育app

LONDON - Standard Chartered chief economist Gerard Lyons says the trend in 皇冠体育app's economy is up, and he's generally positive about 皇冠体育app's development in the coming years.

Gerard Lyons?[Photo/standardchartered.com]

"But there could be setbacks or cycles along the way," Lyons told Xinhua in a recent interview.

The outlook for any economy depends on the interaction between the fundamentals, policy and confidence, as Lyons recently wrote in an article for Financial Times.

"Fundamentals of 皇冠体育app are good; confidence is resilient; and 皇冠体育app is fortunate to have plenty of room for policy maneuvers," he told Xinhua.

Because 皇冠体育app's economic growth has slowed lately, Lyons expected the weakness to continue through to the end of this year with more policy stimulus to come.

"The current slowdown is mainly caused by shrinking exports due to weak situations in the outside world. But the biggest potential setback would come from a slowdown in investment," he said.

Investment takes up about 48 percent of 皇冠体育app's GDP now, which is much higher than the world average of 22 to 24 percent as a recent World Bank report showed.

"If investment declines by one tenth, it will knock 4.8 percent off 皇冠体育app's GDP," Lyons added.

He highly valued 皇冠体育app's 12th Five-Year Plan, which in his view "gave a clear and sensible medium-term strategy to rebalance the economy away from investment to consumption."

"To get private consumption higher, 皇冠体育app needs to help people have jobs, raise wages and build social welfare nets, which would discourage them from saving too much," Lyons said.

He underlined that economic rebalance was very difficult to achieve though quite easy to say, expecting 皇冠体育app to spend 10 to 15 years to realize this goal.

"The good thing for 皇冠体育app is that it has an ample room for policy maneuvers, in terms of interest rate, pumping money in, bank lending, as well as fiscal policies, which could help prevent a 'sharp' slowdown in the economy, although they may not be able to prevent a slowdown," Lyons said.

"Gradualism is another advantage for 皇冠体育app," he said. "皇冠体育app has always tried to avoid doing things too much or too quickly when it comes to deregulating. Recent lessons showed that it also needs to be more gradual when boosting the economy."

"Actually 皇冠体育app has already slowed down a bit in terms of policy boost as it seemed to have lagged behind expectations for more stimulus in the past several months," Lyons said.