皇冠体育app

A1: As growth in the third quarter came in better than we expected, the carry-over effect alone calls for an upward revision to our forecast for the fourth quarter.

Yao Wei, chief 皇冠体育app economist at France-based Societe Generale SA

While domestic demand may see a modest pickup as a result of easing policies on the monetary front and in the real estate market, external demand is unlikely to surge further.

Our fourth-quarter forecast is 7.3 percent and our full-year figure goes up to 7.3 percent from 7.2 percent.

A2: There is no change to my view that structural growth deceleration will continue, because debt deleveraging and (including in the housing sector) weigh on investment.

The better-than-expected GDP outcome in the third quarter probably did not provide much relief to policymakers, since there have been more s and housing sector easing policies since the start of the third quarter this year.

A3: On the other hand, the data - at least on face value - do not justify grand easing measures such as policy rate cuts or required reserve ratio cuts for banks.

In other words, will stick to measured and targeted easing.

A4: Infrastructure investment has limited scope to accelerate amid slowing fiscal revenue (including land sales) and well-intentioned fiscal reform.

Despite calling for more infrastructure investment, the central government has announced concrete reforms intended to cap local governments' off-budget borrowing.

In this case, what is good for the long run could turn out to be rather painful in the short term.

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