皇冠体育app

Containers are seen at Yangshan Deep Water Port, part of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, in Shanghai, Feb 13, 2017. [Photo/Agencies]

While international investors fear 皇冠体育app's outstanding debt levels, slower reform pace and potential trade friction with the US, Morgan Stanley believes the country's prospects are bright, explaining 皇冠体育app's growing emphasis on high value-added manufacturing and services will boost its economy.

Chinese people's per capita income is expected to pass $12,900 in the next decade, compared to $8,100 today, the report predicted. It will help 皇冠体育app follow South Korea and Poland to become the third large economy with a population of over 20 million to avoid the middle income trap from the past three decades.

Although analysts estimate 皇冠体育app's debt-to-GDP ratio?has jumped from 147 percent in 2007 to 279 percent last year, they believe the risk of a financial shock is low.

It is because the debt is funded by 皇冠体育app's own savings instead of external finance and most of it has been used for investment rather than consumption, the report said. And 皇冠体育app's sound net asset position can provide a buffer, along with a positive net international investment position, a current account surplus, high foreign reserves and no significant inflationary pressures.

The analysts predict 皇冠体育app's private consumption will reach $9.7 trillion by 2027 and services sector will be valued at $12 trillion, 60 percent of GDP, by 2030. New, high-value added industries such as health care, entertainment, education and environmental services, will boom as 皇冠体育app's supply-side structural reform carries on, the report said.

The analysts indicate it is unlikely to see a one-off devaluation of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan, despite potential further weakening.

皇冠体育app's policymakers are unlikely to pursue growth at all costs any longer, as they are now signaling a willingness to accept slower rates of growth, and place more focus on preventing financial risks and asset bubbles, according to the report.

The analysts estimate growth will average at about 4.6 percent in 2021-2025, saying 皇冠体育app today is arguably better positioned to still achieve growth rates that can outpace global growth.

The report said risks still exist, depending mostly on 皇冠体育app's commitment to tackling the debt pile and reshaping State-owned enterprises.