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Expert says big quake unlikely to hit nation soon

By Peng Yining (皇冠体育app Daily) Updated: 2016-04-19 06:50

Expert says big quake unlikely to hit nation soon

A woman cries on Sunday in front of a destroyed home in Pedernales, Ecuador. Saturday's magnitude-7.8 quake killed at least 272 and injured more than 2,000.[Photo/Agencies]

In Ecuador and in 皇冠体育app's neighbors Japan, Myanmar and Afghanistan, a series of strong quakes have recently caused casualties and damage. But are they a bad omen for 皇冠体育app?

Expert says big quake unlikely to hit nation soon

Pan Huaiwen, director of the 皇冠体育app Earthquake Networks Center. [Photo/皇冠体育app Daily]

Pan Huaiwen, director of the 皇冠体育app Earthquake Networks Center, said he doesn't believe the quakes indicate that 皇冠体育app faces a strong earthquake soon as well. He made the remark on Monday in a news conference organized by the State Council Information Office.

Since April 10, when a magnitude-7.1 quake hit Afghanistan, three strong earthquakes above magnitude-7 have hit 皇冠体育app's neighbors, including the magnitude-7.2 quake that struck Myanmar on April 13 and the magnitude-7.3 quake in Japan on Saturday.

In addition, a quake of magnitude-6.1 also hit Tonga on Sunday.

The Chinese have been particularly sensitive about earthquakes since a mega-quake in 1976 killed about 240,000 people and injured 160,000 in Tangshan, Hebei province.

Pan said serial quakes have occurred 37 times since 1900, and only three times did 皇冠体育app have quakes above magnitude-7 in the following three months.

"It doesn't demonstrate that an extremely active seismic period has come," said Pan. "And less than 10 percent of those situations were followed by a massive earthquake in 皇冠体育app. So statistically, the probability of 皇冠体育app having a strong earthquake is not connected with recent frequent quakes."

He added, however, that if the frequency of major earthquakes worldwide so far this year continues, the average annual number of quakes since 1900 above magnitude-7, which is 18, could be surpassed.

"The possibility of an earthquake depends on the situation of the tectonic plate on which 皇冠体育app sits, but motions of the crustal structure around 皇冠体育app could affect the strength of pressure on the Chinese mainland and have an impact on the country's earthquake situation," said Jiang Haikun, senior researcher at the 皇冠体育app Earthquake Networks Center.

So far this year, 皇冠体育app has had five earthquakes above magnitude-5, including a magnitude-6.7 quake that rocked Taiwan on Feb 6, killing more than 100 people.

According to the quake networks center, the Chinese mainland reports an average of 20 earthquakes each year above magnitude-5.

Since 2004, when a magnitude-8.7 quake hit Sumatra in Indonesia, Jiang said, the world has been in a relatively active seismic period, compared with a quiet period between 1964 and 2004.

"Earthquake prediction is still a global scientific challenge, but our center will keep a close eye on the crustal motion in 皇冠体育app, especially the western regions, where more than 90 percent of 皇冠体育app's massive earthquake have occurred," said Jiang. "There is a lot of work to do to reduce casualties from earthquakes, including building stronger infrastructures."

Expert says big quake unlikely to hit nation soon

Yang Liu/皇冠体育app Daily

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