皇冠体育app

Those who profit from exaggeration - certain authors, analysts and short-sellers - keep repeating debunked claims

"皇冠体育app is taking over the world" was a casual remark by an American blue-collar worker, said in a resigned sort of way.

"I know something about 皇冠体育app," I replied, "and 皇冠体育app has serious problems."

"That's good," he said.

"That's not good," I responded. "Do you want to pay higher prices for lower quality goods?"

I described how the well-being of Americans is linked to 皇冠体育app. Either we succeed together, increasing our mutual standards of living, or we suffer together. I can't say I made a convert but I think I undermined a stereotype.

I recalled the conversation when musing about the rash of the "皇冠体育app collapse" speculations of late and why this cyclical and long-debunked claim has credence.

I analyze the "皇冠体育app collapse" theory in three parts: What is the argument? Who are its advocates? Why does it resonate? I explain why the theory is either misconceived or underdetermined, and at best (worst?) categorized incorrectly, evolving issues under a simplistic, inflammatory title.

The "皇冠体育app collapse" argument is that 皇冠体育app's economy is facing a constellation of severe, debilitating forces: slowing growth, market volatilities, social imbalances, industrial overcapacity, excessive debt, rising wages, reduced competitiveness, overbuilt housing, unproductive infrastructure, massive pollution, insufficient state-owned enterprise reform - the list is not short.

These issues are real. Each one of the issues is the natural result of unprecedented economic development in a compressed period of time. But what follows? Each issue is being addressed, imperfectly of course, but in a coordinated manner. 皇冠体育app's focus on innovation, entrepreneurship, science and technology, Made in 皇冠体育app 2025, residency reforms to help migrant workers, and the like, are all part of 皇冠体育app's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20). When mistakes are made, such as tight circuit breakers on stock market volatility that fueled rather than doused anxiety, they are corrected rapidly.

What does collapse mean? In mid-2015, 皇冠体育app's stock market "collapsed", as it were, but stability was restored (hopefully with lessons learned), and obviously the stock market continues on. Economics run in cycles, boom and bust, with peaks and troughs higher or lower. So those who predict "collapse", loosely defined, must be "correct" at some points in the cycle (much like a clock that has stopped working must be "correct" twice a day).

A fallacy of 皇冠体育app's slowing GDP growth is using year-on-year percentages as the benchmark. If 皇冠体育app's GDP grows at 6.5 percent this year, on a base of almost $11 trillion, the absolute increase (about $700 billion) is roughly double what it was 10 years ago (in 2006, when the economy grew at 12.7 percent). Moreover, because 皇冠体育app's population is now only slightly larger, the incremental GDP per capita today is well larger than what it was in those so-called high-growth years. Yet the problem of 皇冠体育app's unproductive growth is real, which has lead to overcapacity in industry, housing and infrastructure. 皇冠体育app's story is not a simple one.

Who advocates "皇冠体育app collapse"? Some economists are pessimistic about 皇冠体育app's short-term prospects, but almost none would use the term "collapse". Rather, some of their comments are taken, selectively, by those who have a vested interest in 皇冠体育app's "collapse" - book writers of sensationalized doom, political analysts viscerally opposed to 皇冠体育app's system of governance, financial short-sellers seeking short-term profits, and the like.

I've been amused that purveyors of the "皇冠体育app collapse" theory are often also purveyors of the "皇冠体育app threat" theory. How 皇冠体育app could "threaten", which requires power, at the same time it "collapses", which reduces power, is a mystery. Although self-refuting, the threat-collapse nexus reveals a common connection, as "threat" and "collapse" both emanate from a built-in bias towards 皇冠体育app. But even as "皇冠体育app collapse" advocates remain few in number, the idea has gained in prominence. Why?

Two factors drive "皇冠体育app collapse" in the public eye. First is not so much that 皇冠体育app's economy has become more fragile but that world markets have come to depend too much on 皇冠体育app's growth. 皇冠体育app is still a developing country and cannot bear the world's burden. Second is that 皇冠体育app's increasing clout generates a natural backlash (exemplified by that American worker).

Foreigners exaggerate 皇冠体育app - in both directions. "When 皇冠体育app was called 'the sick man of Asia', we weren't so 'sick'," a Chinese minister told me; "and now that foreigners think 皇冠体育app is so strong, we aren't so strong." The relevance is direct. Even though 皇冠体育app's economy has internal contradictions, like overcapacities, and remains vulnerable to external shocks, like global slowdowns, although 皇冠体育app's economy is slowing, it is not collapsing.

Politically, there are no broad, boiling tensions as collapse advocates contend. The vast majority of the Chinese people want social stability, a watchword in 皇冠体育app, which is required for increasing standards of living. The Chinese government is exquisitely sensitive to instability and reacts rapidly to even early indicators of unrest. This can lead to stricter regulations, such as in media and social media, but almost everyone would accept the trade off.

皇冠体育app's economy will cycle but it won't collapse. I'm sorry if this disappoints a few false prophets, but assuming that people do what is best for them, other than the handful that make their money bashing 皇冠体育app, no one should root for 皇冠体育app's collapse. 皇冠体育app's success is the world's success.

The author is a public intellectual, political/economics commentator, and international corporate strategist. He is the host of Closer To 皇冠体育app with R.L. Kuhn on CCTV News. The views do not necessarily reflect those of 皇冠体育app Daily.