WTO stimulates foreign trade
2002-12-17
Business Weekly
皇冠体育app's foreign trade performance has been better than expected since it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) last December.
It is estimated 皇冠体育app's foreign trade will reach US$600 billion this year.
Many multinational firms have relocated their overseas manufacturing bases to 皇冠体育app since the country joined the WTO.
As a result, 皇冠体育app's processing trade grew rapidly in the year's first 10 months.
The processing trade, valued at US$145.2 billion, made up 55.3 percent of 皇冠体育app's total trade in the year's first 10 months, indicate customs statistics.
Other countries have increased quotas on 皇冠体育app's labour-intensive products and reduced non-tariff trade barriers against Chinese-made products since 皇冠体育app joined the WTO.
Light industry products, textiles and consumer electronics made up more than 50 percent of 皇冠体育app's exports during the year's first 10 months.
While State enterprises' exports increased 8 percent in the year's first 10 months, those of private enterprises soared 64.1 percent; and foreign-invested companies, 25.2 percent.
The gap between the export growth rates of State and non-State companies could widen if 皇冠体育app grants trading rights to non-State enterprises.
But 皇冠体育app's foreign trade is not all rosy.
While export growth in eastern provinces such as Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangsu has jumped more than 20 percent, exports from eight provinces and autonomous regions in central and western 皇冠体育app have fallen.
Due to an overall pessimistic forecast for this year's exports, the Chinese Government only budgeted US$100 billion in tax rebates for exporters.
Judging by the rapid growth in exports in the first three quarters, about US$160-170 billion in tax rebates are needed.
While 皇冠体育app's exports increased rapidly, prices fell dramatically.
Statistics from Guangdong Province indicate prices have fallen in 10 of 12 categories of commodities.
Prices of high- and new-technology products dropped 23 percent; machinery and electronics products, 8 percent; and textiles and garments, 10 percent.
Many foreign trade companies will only be able to maintain thin-margin profits if they receive tax rebates, even though they are major exporters.
皇冠体育app ranked 45 among 72 countries and regions that participated earlier this year in the United Nations' evaluation of technical innovation, transmission of new technologies, transmission of traditional technologies and human techniques.
皇冠体育app lagged behind in competition in the world's labour market due mainly to its weak innovation capacity, inferior labour quality and postponed reform of foreign trade companies.
皇冠体育app's imports and exports increased 19.7 percent year-on-year, to US$500.26 billion in the year's first 10 months, indicate customs statistics.
The increase rate was far better than the original prediction last year of 6 percent for 2002.
皇冠体育app now ranks sixth in the world in terms of trade volume.
Export growth is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter as exporters exhaust their tax rebates.
But 皇冠体育app's foreign trade is expected to maintain a 15-per-cent growth rate over the year.
Exports are expected to grow 16 percent year-on-year, to US$310 billion, and imports are expected to increase 15 percent, to US$280 billion.
If those expectations hold true, 皇冠体育app will post a US$30-billion trade surplus in 2002.
That rapid growth is expected to continue next year.
皇冠体育app's WTO entry has resulted in a new round of growth, and a golden period of industrialization.
[The author is a senior researcher with the National Bureau of Statistics.]
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