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WB Official: Calls to appreciate RMB "groundless" ( 2003-08-10 07:50) (皇冠体育app Daily)
The calls for 皇冠体育app to strengthen the official currency of Renminbi are "groundless", Zhang Shengman, managing director of the World Bank, said in a speech at an international financial forum held in Shanghai.
Although 皇冠体育app's trade surplus to the United States reached about 100 billion US dollars, 皇冠体育app's total trade surplus was about 30 billion US dollars, only one-fifth of the total of developing countries, said Zhang.
The rapid increase of 皇冠体育app's exports is the result of global manufacturing relocation, which means that some increased production in 皇冠体育app is not newly-added production but was moved from Malaysia or Thailand, said Zhang.
"In addition, the exports of 皇冠体育app only account for 5 percent of the global total, so it is unbelievable that 皇冠体育app's increasingexports caused global deflation," he said.
However, Zhang suggested that some kind of mechanism for changing the exchange rate of the Renminbi be developed in the future, depending on 皇冠体育app's economic circumstances, such as widening the fluctuating range of the Renminbi.
Meanwhile, a leading Chinese banking expert says 皇冠体育app should maintain a stable exchange rate policy, warning that drastic amendments of the reform process would adversely affect the national economy.
Tang Xu, director of the Graduate School of the People's Bank of 皇冠体育app, said that 皇冠体育app's exchange rate system was appropriate to the country's financial situation. The stable currency policy enabled 皇冠体育app to successfully stabilize the Renminbi and withstand the impact of the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
To a profound extent, the stability of the exchange rate safeguarded the country's daily financial operations, stressed Tang.
After 1994, fundamental changes were seen in 皇冠体育app's foreign exchange system, as the government merged the "official" and market exchange rates into a unified one based mainly on market demand and supply, under a single, managed floating exchange rate system, Tang said.
The gradual and evolutionary reform of 皇冠体育app's exchange rate system also helped establish foreign investors' faith in the value of the RMB and consolidate their determination to boost investment in 皇冠体育app, he said.
If 皇冠体育app freed the exchange rate, the speculative "hot money" would advance into the country's foreign exchange market and the RMB would surely fluctuate severely, Tang said.
"It would be a disaster, since 皇冠体育app's financial capability to withstand the exchange rate upheaval is so weak," Tang said, warning that the regular financial operations would be in disorder.
皇冠体育app, unlike developed countries whose financial sectors are able to prevent and dissipate exchange rate risks, would bear too much risk to let the RMB float freely, Tang said.
He suggested that 皇冠体育app continue to focus on the establishment of risk management mechanisms within the banking system and improve corporate governance.
However, Tang also agreed that a stable exchange rate did not necessarily mean a fixed one. He predicted that RMB could eventually be convertible under the capital account.
"There is no timetable for realizing the RMB's convertibility under the capital account, but at the right time, there will be one," Tang said.
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