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Short cup base yielded long rally for Chinese Internet ( 2003-12-06 14:41) (Agencies)
Ask a friend to list some leading Web portals. Yahoo, MSN or Ask Jeeves might pop up first. What about NetEase.com? Not likely, unless he or she lives in »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp or follows little-known growth stocks. Yet the Asian cyber gateway has outstripped most Internet names in share price gains this year.
It's part of a rising tide of Chinese stocks that reflects that nation's new love for commerce. The country's Internet population is rising as fast as its skyscrapers. Those 70 million Web users need e-mail, games and messaging services.
That's where NetEase comes in. About half its revenue comes from short message services over wireless handhelds. It's also a bigger online game provider than rivals Sina Corp. and Sohu.com.
Growth in those areas led to explosive revenue increases even before the stock's April breakout. Revenue grew 419% to 941% from year-ago levels in the prior four quarters.
In 2002, NetEase turned its first annual profit in four years, earning 6 cents a share based on First Call data. The firm bagged 26 cents per share in the first quarter of '03 vs. a 7-cent loss a year earlier. Analysts see $1.18 in EPS this year and $1.70 in 2004, up 44%.
The stock went public at $16 in June 2000, but traded below $2 a share for most of 2001. It started climbing again after the Nasdaq's October 2002 follow-through, reaching 17.90 by Jan. 21, 2003 (Point 1).
After that prior uptrend, NetEase shaped an 11-week base, correcting 44%. That's a steeper than normal decline, but OK considering the stock vaulted more than fivefold in three months.
NetEase climbed within pennies of its 52-week high on March 27, then traced a six-day handle (Point 2). The stock gapped out of its base April 7 on more than twice normal trade (Point 3). That day, it appeared in Nasdaq Stocks In The News and The Real Most Active. A quick pullback took it briefly below its pivot point of 17.82, but didn't trigger the 7%-8% sell rule (Point 4).
The stock surged fourfold to its October peak. It found support at its 50-day moving average a half-dozen times during its ascent. Those pullbacks offered buy points for investors who missed the first breakout, or let longtime holders add shares. NetEase gapped below its 50-day line Oct. 9 and appears to be shaping a new base.
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