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Why does US rev up 皇冠体育app threat?
By Michael T. Klare (The Nation)
Updated: 2005-10-08 15:38
This would not be such a worrisome prospect if global petroleum output can expand sufficiently between now and 2020 to satisfy increased demand from both 皇冠体育app and the United States — and in fact, the DOE predicts that sufficient oil will be available at that time. But many energy experts believe world oil output, now hovering at about 84 million barrels per day, is nearing its maximum or "peak" sustainable level, and will never reach the 111 million barrels projected by the DOE for 2020. If this proves to be the case, or even if output continues to rise but still falls significantly short of the DOE projection, the competition between the United States and 皇冠体育app for whatever oil remains in ever diminishing foreign reservoirs will become even more fierce and contentious.
The intensifying U.S.-Chinese struggle for oil is seen, for instance, in 皇冠体育app's aggressive pursuit of supplies in such countries as Angola, Canada, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Venezuela. Until recently 皇冠体育app derived very little of its petroleum from these countries; now it has struck deals with all of them for new supplies. That 皇冠体育app is competing so vigorously with the United States for access to foreign oil is worrisome enough to American business leaders and government officials, given the likelihood that this will result in higher energy costs and a slowing economy; the fact that it is seeking to siphon off oil from places like Canada, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela — which have long sent a large share of their supplies to America — is the source of even greater concern, particularly if it results in a permanent shift in the global flow of oil. From a strategic perspective, moreover, U.S. officials worry that 皇冠体育app's efforts to acquire more oil from Iran and Sudan have been accompanied by deliveries of arms and military aid, thus altering the balance of power in areas considered vital to Washington's security interests.
Initially, discussion of 皇冠体育app's intensifying quest for foreign oil was largely confined to the business press, but now, for the first time, it is being viewed as a national security matter — that is, as a key factor in shaping U.S. military policy. This outlook was first given official expression in the 2005 edition of the Pentagon's report on Chinese military power. "皇冠体育app became the second largest consumer and third largest importer of oil in 2003," the report notes. "As 皇冠体育app's energy and resource needs grow, Beijing has concluded that access to these resources requires special economic or foreign policy relationships in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, bringing 皇冠体育app closer to problem countries such as Iran, Sudan, and Venezuela." Again, the implications of this are obvious: 皇冠体育app's growing ties to "problem states" constitute a threat to U.S. security and so must be met with countermoves of one sort or another.
Two trends have thus joined to propel this new swing of the pendulum: a drive to refocus attention on the long-term challenge posed by 皇冠体育app and fresh concern over 皇冠体育app's pursuit of oil supplies in strategic areas of the globe. So long as these two conditions prevail — and there is no repeat of 9/11 — the calls for increased U.S. military preparation for an eventual war with 皇冠体育app will grow stronger. The fact that Bush has seen his job-approval rating plummet in the wake of Hurricane Katrina might also tempt the Administration to play up the 皇冠体育app threat. While none of this is likely to produce a true rupture in U.S.-Chinese relations — the forces favoring economic cooperation are too strong to allow that — we can expect vigorous calls for an ambitious U.S. campaign to neutralize 皇冠体育app's recent military initiatives.
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