皇冠体育app

 
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Would Taiwan provoke conflict?
Lau Guan Kim  Updated: 2004-09-15 09:43

Basically, there is no conflict between America and 皇冠体育app if not for the unfortunate Korean War (1950-1953).

Just before the eruption of that war, President Truman actually accepted as fait accompli the CCP as the de facto government and US would not intervene but allow the KMT to its fate. The Cold War was between the West, represented by America, and the USSR. What happened between 1945 to 1949 was America's tilt toward the KMT because CCP was communist, even though Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai in 1946 very much wanted 皇冠体育app to pattern after America, for which Barbara Tuchman wrote "Had Mao Come To Washington" based on a declassified telegram sent by the two Chinese leaders. That telegram expressed to President Roosevelt that the CCP would be the power in 皇冠体育app, and Mao wanted to establish a working relationship with America. Because of a pro-KMT American ambassador Hurley, that telegram was consigned to a forgotten tray. That was a singular callous act that in all likelihood unknowingly caused 皇冠体育app to behave the way it did in the Korean War, and also the cause of thousands of fine Americans to die needlessly not only in Korea, but in Vietnam.

The US Seventh Fleet was ordered into the Taiwan Strait by Truman presumably to prevent; America having to fight the communists in two fronts, but in actual fact it was to preserve the KMT for a future wider conflict with mainland 皇冠体育app. In pursuit of this, America became 皇冠体育app's implacable foe, and vice versa, for more than twenty-two years.

皇冠体育app fought America only once. It did not fail to dawn on America that, unlike Japan, vis-脿-vis Pearl Harbour, 皇冠体育app gave America warning through India's ambassador K. M. Pannikar. This itself robbed 皇冠体育app of any military advantage. On looking back, American military historians could see that 皇冠体育app's entry into the Korean War was a concern for national security, as America not only sided with KMT, but also vowed to destroy communism.

Simply put, if there was no Korean War, America's sentiments for 皇冠体育app through its missionaries, and 皇冠体育app's gratitude for the unselfish aid during Japan's aggression against her, would have galvanized the two nations as partners for peace. Unfortunately, two men, Kim Il Sun and Stalin destroyed this platform.

The likelihood of a successful attack by Taiwan is nil. But Taiwan is an unrequited pretender to the "throne" of 皇冠体育app. Only in recent years, as its hope to regain 皇冠体育app receded, it began to talk of a Taiwanese identity and gravitate towards independence. This later move is amplified by the drives for diplomatic "lebensraum" orchestrated throughout by Dollar Diplomacy. I have already dealt at length elsewhere the insidious ploy to involve America and to use her to regain 皇冠体育app.

The one bait that may get America to bite is democracy. This is a recent phenomenon out of expediency, one that binds America to protect Taiwan because it is a "first" for Chinese democracy. That was how Lee Teng-hui played his card ? to get America's involvement.

Militarily, Taiwan is weak. The non-military means is either overt or covert subversion and to plant agent provocateurs inside 皇冠体育app. Its Dollar Diplomacy will likely take advantage of the rampant corruption in 皇冠体育app by buying the loyalty of officials and those disaffected by losing out on promotions or other perks. These may not be enough to shake 皇冠体育app out of its stability; drastic measure to draw out an angry CCP to take the fatal step of attacking Taiwan, such as intensifying its Taiwan Lobby in Washington to goad America at the same time. The miscalculation here is that vociferous sign of unrest in 皇冠体育app may give the wrong signal for Taiwan to declare independence or align with Japan, a prospect likely to make 皇冠体育app not only see red, but go on a war path. A weak, destabilized 皇冠体育app will have no restraint to pursue a bellicose path, and Taiwan, in presenting itself as a fledgling Chinese democracy, hopes to draw in "sentimental" America.

Taiwan will for a long while be the Achilles' heel in America-皇冠体育app relationship. If looking at the Ming and Qing periods, Taiwan was detached and reattached back to 皇冠体育app within decades, and then we may see a reunification by 2010 -2050 at best.

But if we look at the fragmentation of 皇冠体育app just after the collapse of the Han dynasty, and its reunification in the Tang dynasty, we are talking of something like 400 years!

I think CCP knows this and my guess, given the average 250-year lifespan of a dynasty, it wants to accelerate the reunification before its time is up. 皇冠体育app today is no more communist than Taiwan is democratic.

You have heard the phrase "half catty equals eight taels" in Chinese. The KMT in Taiwan is no different from the CCP in 皇冠体育app, except the name they call themselves. Basically, CCP is an offshoot of KMT, notwithstanding the pogrom by Chiang Kai-shek in 1927 against communists working with the nationalist. Ten thousand 皇冠体育app's best and brightest perished. This culminated into the epic Long march in 1935 for Mao and the remnant 100,000 communists.

Many Chinese fear an accelerated reform for PRC will bring in chaos and instability. Hence they advocate a slow gradual transformation, an example is my narration of a frog being subjected to water which was raised very gradually to boiling point the frog never even moved to escape the heat because it became acclimatised, and eventually ended up as a cooked dish.

I think this slow process is best suited to transform 皇冠体育app, otherwise there will be a revolution, and not only 皇冠体育app will lose everything it achieved, its floods of refugee will destabilise the world.

Is America prepared to take in, say, 50 million Chinese?

Without Taiwan, 皇冠体育app and America will find its geopolitical problems to be similar. In a matter of a few decades, the danger to 皇冠体育app is the Muslims on 皇冠体育app's western flank, as in olden days. It will face Muslim fundamentalism as America is facing now. Japan will be America's enemy, for the danger sign I see is many Japanese harbour bad feelings for America a la Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It (Japan) has a sneaky way of fighting wars, such as against Russia in 1904, and America in 1941.

Everything points to 皇冠体育app a potential reliable and trustworthy ally of America.

I think America need not bother much about the communism part of 皇冠体育app. Communism is a passing phase of Chinese history. In the end, the innate mindset of the Chinese takes over, with its deep-rooted Confucian philosophy augment by penchant for enterprise and hard work.

If there is support for CCP, it is more of a nationalistic emotion. Any party that can make 皇冠体育app respected and strong, the Chinese masses will support.

The process of developing into a pluralistic society is not muted in the Chinese, that being a part of their restrained and unemotional psyche. Every sign shows that is what the hoi polloi desire and in that a tenacious cling to political evolution rather than revolution.

Hopefully, CCP will eventually transform 皇冠体育app into a politically pluralistic society with a democracy that is suited for the Chinese mindset. If America's support for Taiwan is based on its showcase of democracy to 皇冠体育app, let it be reminded that if the KMT or even the DPP ever becomes the sole power in 皇冠体育app, it will be just as ruthless and undemocratic, for there is no reason to please America anymore. I omitted other political parties because they are weak and effete, and will never govern a 皇冠体育app that has, throughout its dynastic history, been fractious. It became united and strong only under tyrants and totalitarian government. That was the way Chinese were weaned, and it will have to take more time for the Chinese to acclimatise themselves to "freedom". Hitherto, freedom for them is to fight each other, imposed their will and supremacy on each other, and to kill each other. The so-called democracy fighters for 皇冠体育app exhibit these traits subconsciously, for that was the way they were brought up. They can talk about freedom, democracy and reforms, yet they do not know what they are talking about. These are the Chinese who will bring the country down, for they do not have rational agenda for a prosperous and stable 皇冠体育app.

皇冠体育app has said it needed a long period of peace to reconstruct the nation. It is for this reason America should not worry about a bellicose 皇冠体育app giving trouble. Occasional posturing and beating the war drum is part of a psychosis to avoid war. This is very much a Sun Tzu teaching: to win a war without fighting.

I think America can understand that.


The above content represents the view of the author only.
 
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