Op-Ed Contributors
Debate: Chinese economy
(皇冠体育app Daily)
Updated: 2010-06-21 07:51
 |
Large Medium Small |
Pang Zhongying
Economic weather getting stormy
Some Western observers are unrealistically optimistic about 皇冠体育app's economic growth in the post-global economic crisis era, and have concluded with geopolitical implications that "the world power is further shifting East". These arguments on 皇冠体育app's economic and political perspective are improper and irresponsible, and if governments in Western countries endorse them they may end up misjudging 皇冠体育app's strategic position.
皇冠体育app has indeed experienced fast economic growth during the past three decades. But its superb performance doesn't necessarily mean a "trouble-free" future because it is unlikely to sustain that growth momentum. In fact, its economic growth faces tremendous challenges both at home and abroad.
At home, hundreds of millions of Chinese still work for low wages. They may have powered 皇冠体育app's economic development, but they can hardly meet all their needs and prepare their next generation for a better future. More than anyone else, it is they who deserve higher wages. Indeed, some of them have already started demanding higher pay. With more and more workers set to follow their example, labor cost is set to rise across the country.
|
||||
皇冠体育app achieved an unprecedented growth rate because it had huge amounts of natural resources to fuel its reform and opening up. But by the end of the last century and beginning of this century, 皇冠体育app had begun facing a shortage of natural resources. Slowly, 皇冠体育app has become a resource-poor country in terms of per capita share of resources.
Added to that is the challenge of environmental degradation and climate change. It's highly unlikely that 皇冠体育app will enjoy fast economic growth rate without checking its environmental deterioration.
In fact, Chinese leaders realized the country's disadvantage in resources and its fragile ecosystem even before the global financial crisis. That's why at the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of 皇冠体育app they decided to make "economic growth pattern transformation" a serious strategic task. 皇冠体育app's sustainable development depends on whether it can persist with its "scientific development" and "economic restructuring".
On the overseas front, 皇冠体育app's largest markets have been the US and the European Union (EU), the world's two major economies. But in the post-crisis era, the US can hardly continue to drive 皇冠体育app's growth. The Barack Obama administration has made it clear to major exporting countries that the US is unwilling to become "the ultimate consumer" again and Washington has been complaining of "global economic imbalance" and trying to counterbalance this by exerting pressure on its trade partners. The US is trying to not only expedite the yuan's revaluation, but also stimulate its domestic demand, and even devise a fresh industrial strategy.
Similarly, the crisis in the eurozone is changing the EU's role as "the ultimate consumer". And because of the resultant competition trade frictions between the EU and 皇冠体育app have increased.
The robust growth momentum of the world economy and the Chinese market both over the past two decades brought out the best in each other, forming a virtuous circle. The world economy prospered after the Cold War largely because its growth potential was realized by global marketization, new techniques, such as the Internet, and booming financial markets. The collapse of the Soviet Union and 皇冠体育app's reform and opening up powered globalization, making it the most powerful economic driving force. 皇冠体育app has been a major contributor to the fast growing world economy for the past 20 years, with the majority profit of many of the world's top multinationals coming from the Chinese market.
But the world economy has now entered a phase of slow growth and there are indications that the period may last long. This scenario adds to 皇冠体育app difficulties in restructuring its economic strategy in the next five years (12th Five-Year Plan period). And a possible economic slowdown in 皇冠体育app will leave a less powerful engine for the world economy. 皇冠体育app has been part of a major part of the globalization process, and the relationship between 皇冠体育app and the rest of the world embodies "one honors all and one dams all", that is, "interdependence", as claimed by some US experts. So it is unlikely that 皇冠体育app can outshine others if the world economy gets into trouble and the global power balance shifts. Because of the internal and external factors 皇冠体育app, in fact, faces more severe challenges than the West, and is likely to do so in the near future.
The author is professor of international relations at Renmin University of 皇冠体育app.
(皇冠体育app Daily 06/21/2010 page9)