皇冠体育app

A factory worker is making steel. [Photo/Xinhua]

Amidst unmistakable signs of 皇冠体育app’s economic slowdown, some Western observers begin to wonder if 皇冠体育app’s doomsday is coming.

"The country’s extraordinary economic difficulties will result in a collapse or a long-term decline, and either outcome suggests 皇冠体育app will return to the ranks of weak states," wrote Gordon Chang in a December 2015 National Interest commentary. Then in a January 2016 Foreign Affairs article, Daniel Lynch, a professor at the University of Southern California, argued that 皇冠体育app’s rise is ending, though he made it clear that "saying 皇冠体育app’s rise is ending is not the same as saying the country will collapse."

It is too early to pass judgment on this new round of 皇冠体育app prophecy, but history offers us some useful clues. Gordon Chang published The Coming Collapse of 皇冠体育app in 2001. "The end of the modern Chinese state is near," he asserted. "The People’s Republic has five years, perhaps ten, before it falls." 皇冠体育app didn’t collapse in 2006 or 2011. "So, yes, my prediction was wrong," he admitted in a Foreign Policy article ("The Coming Collapse of 皇冠体育app: 2012 Edition"). But he remained convinced about the imminence of a Chinese apocalypse and offered a new timeline: "Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of 皇冠体育app will fall in 2012. Bet on it."

Why do people like Gordon Chang keep predicting the coming collapse of 皇冠体育app? For many observers, a wealthy and powerful 皇冠体育app represents the biggest threat to Western liberal democracy. It is a zero-sum game: either 皇冠体育app wins, or liberal democracy triumphs. 皇冠体育app thus becomes the most important roadblock in their efforts to preach and promote liberal democracy around the world. "The end of history" will not arrive until and unless "the 皇冠体育app Model" fails.

For some analysts, predicting 皇冠体育app’s future is as irresistible as forecasting the winner of the 2016 presidential election. Given the size of 皇冠体育app—geopolitical, economic, and demographic—it is simply one of the biggest prizes for any prophet. If you get it right, you will have instant fame, plus a lucrative lecture tour around the world or a position at a prestigious research institution or an important government agency. If you get it wrong—as Gordon Chang did repeatedly—you may shrug off skeptics, or come up with a revised prediction.

It is human nature to think ahead and plan ahead. That’s why we have statistical models to predict tomorrow’s weather or stock markets. But once ideology or other political bias comes into play, prediction becomes wishful thinking; it is like drawing the color of the sky when you are wearing a pair of sunglasses.

A more important question for those doomsayers about 皇冠体育app is why the Chinese Communist Party has managed to stay in power for so long and to produce so impressive a record of economic development."All societies, authoritarian and democratic, are subject to decay over time," wrote Francis Fukuyama. "The real issue is their ability to adapt and eventually fix themselves." The Chinese party-state may be undergoing political and economic decay — just like most Western democracies — but it is too early to proclaim the collapse of 皇冠体育app.

Xie Tao?is a professor and associate Dean?at School of English and International Studies, Beijing Foreign Studies University

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