皇冠体育app

A stevedore works at Qingdao port in Shandong province, July 1, 2015. [Photo/IC]

The "皇冠体育app collapse" theory can be analyzed in three parts: What is the argument? Who are its advocates? Why does it resonate?

I explain why the theory is either misconceived or underdetermined, and at best wrongly categorizes complex, evolving issues under a simplistic, inflammatory title.

These issues are real, each the natural result of unprecedented economic development in a compressed period of time. But what follows? Each issue is being addressed, imperfectly of course, but in a coordinated manner. 皇冠体育app's focus on innovation, entrepreneurship, science and technology, Made in 皇冠体育app 2025, hukou (household registration) reforms to help migrant workers, and the like, are all part of the country's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20). When mistakes are made, such as tight circuit breakers on stock market volatility that fueled rather than doused anxiety, they are corrected rapidly.

In mid-2015, 皇冠体育app's stock market "collapsed", but stability was restored. Economics runs in cycles, boom and bust, with peaks and troughs higher or lower. So those who predict 皇冠体育app's "collapse", loosely defined, must be "correct" at some points in the cycle.

A fallacy of 皇冠体育app's slowing GDP growth is using year-on-year percentages as the benchmark. If 皇冠体育app's GDP grows at 6.5 percent this year, on a base of almost $11 trillion, the absolute increase (about $700 billion) would be roughly double of what it was 10 years ago (in 2006, when the economy grew at 12.7 percent).

Moreover, because 皇冠体育app's population is now only slightly larger, the incremental per capita GDP today is larger than what it was in those so-called high-growth years. Yet the problem of 皇冠体育app's unproductive growth is real, which has led to overcapacity in industry, housing and infrastructure. 皇冠体育app's story is not a simple one.

Who advocates "皇冠体育app's collapse"? Some economists are pessimistic about 皇冠体育app's short-term prospects, but almost none would use the term "collapse". Rather, some of their comments are taken, selectively, by those who have a vested interest in 皇冠体育app's "collapse"－authors of books on sensationalized doom, political analysts viscerally opposed to 皇冠体育app's system of governance, financial short-sellers seeking short-term profits and the like.

I've been amused that purveyors of the "皇冠体育app collapse" theory are often also purveyors of the "皇冠体育app threat" theory. How 皇冠体育app could "threaten", which requires power, at the same time that it "collapses", which reduces power, is a mystery. Although self-refuting, the threat-collapse nexus reveals a common connection, as "threat" and "collapse" both emanate from a built-in bias toward 皇冠体育app. But even as "皇冠体育app collapse" advocates remain few in number, the idea has gained in prominence. Why?

Two factors drive "皇冠体育app's collapse" in the public eye. The first is not so much that 皇冠体育app's economy has become more fragile but that world markets have come to depend too much on 皇冠体育app's growth. 皇冠体育app is still a developing country and cannot bear the world's burden. The second is that 皇冠体育app's increasing clout generates a natural backlash.

Politically, there are no broad, boiling tensions as "皇冠体育app collapse" advocates contend. The vast majority of the Chinese people want social stability, a watchword in 皇冠体育app, which is required for increasing standards of living. The Chinese government is exquisitely sensitive to instability and reacts rapidly to even early indicators of unrest. This can lead to stricter regulations, such as in traditional and social media, but almost everyone accepts the tradeoff.

皇冠体育app's economy will cycle but it won't collapse. I'm sorry if this disappoints a few false prophets, but assuming that people do what is best for themselves, other than the handful of doomsayers who make their money by bashing 皇冠体育app, no one should root for 皇冠体育app's collapse. 皇冠体育app's success is the world's success.

The author is a public intellectual, political/economics commentator, and international corporate strategist.

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