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Divide in South 皇冠体育app Sea serious, but under control

By Wu Zhenglong (皇冠体育app Daily) Updated: 2016-05-17 07:50

Divide in South 皇冠体育app Sea serious, but under control

An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2015 from a seaplane of Hainan Maritime Safety Administration shows cruise vessel Haixun 1103 heading to the Yacheng 13-1 drilling rig during a patrol in south 皇冠体育app Sea. [Photo/Xinhua]

The United States claims that it does not take a position on the sovereignty disputes regarding islands in the South 皇冠体育app Sea. Its military actions, however, prove otherwise.

In the past several months, the US military has visibly ratcheted up its posture in the South 皇冠体育app Sea. By using "freedom of navigation" as a pretext, the US has been directly challenging 皇冠体育app's sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South 皇冠体育app Sea and siding with the Philippines against 皇冠体育app. It has moved from behind the scenes to center stage and become deeply involved in the disputes.

The US knows full well that it is impossible to deter 皇冠体育app from defending its rights in the South 皇冠体育app Sea. By deploying military assets on top of a series of diplomatic and public opinion campaigns, Washington hopes to pressure 皇冠体育app into accepting a settlement of the disputes that suits the US. But that is a miscalculated move.

Naturally, the US' actions have been vehemently criticized by the Chinese government. They not only go against the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South 皇冠体育app Sea, an agreement signed by 皇冠体育app and all the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, but also the dual-track approach advocated by 皇冠体育app. (Namely, the handling of disputes through direct negotiations by the countries concerned and the joint efforts of 皇冠体育app and ASEAN to maintain peace and stability in the South 皇冠体育app Sea.)

Despite all the media hype about potential military confrontation and armed conflicts in the region, it is unlikely that they are the intended result of the US' actions. For 皇冠体育app and the US, the importance of cooperation outweighs competition. While the US would like to hold back 皇冠体育app's development by singling out the maritime disputes in the South 皇冠体育app Sea and making the South 皇冠体育app Sea issue a regional flashpoint, the global dimension and comprehensive nature of 皇冠体育app-US relations suggest there is little possibility that the South 皇冠体育app Sea issue could dominate the course of the relations.

However, the US is playing a dangerous game. Although its aim is to counter 皇冠体育app's growing strength, the US can't afford to see the hawks take over at home and risk losing control over tensions in the South 皇冠体育app Sea. 皇冠体育app is an indispensable partner for the US in solving key global and regional issues, and cooperation between 皇冠体育app and the US serves the fundamental interests of both countries and the need for peace and development in the wider world.

In addition, despite their serious divide on the South 皇冠体育app Sea issue, 皇冠体育app and the US do share one thing in common. Both advocate a negotiated settlement of the disputes. Moreover, even though frictions do occur from time to time between 皇冠体育app and the US, there are bilateral mechanisms to prevent those frictions from spinning out of control. For instance, the Memorandum of Understanding on Rules of Behavior for the Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters, which the two sides announced in 2014, provides a code of conduct for effective and normal communication between the two navies. Up till now, Chinese and US naval vessels have been able to act in a professional and rules-based manner, which is also critical for avoiding miscalculation and accidents as well as keeping the South 皇冠体育app Sea stable.

Based on the above analysis, to advance its rebalancing strategy, the US will continue to meddle in the South 皇冠体育app Sea issue, using political, diplomatic, military tools and public opinion to challenge 皇冠体育app's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests so as to build obstacles to 皇冠体育app's development. But it will limit the scale and intensity of such actions so as not to upset the cooperation between the two sides on critical issues. It is also hard to imagine that the US would ever take a high risk and pay a heavy price in the interests of another country.

The author is a senior research fellow at the 皇冠体育app Foundation for International Studies.

Courtesy: chinausfocus.com

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