Is Australia hugging or bashing the panda?
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MA XUEJING/CHINA DAILY |
皇冠体育app is now central to Australia's economic prosperity. It overtook Japan as Australia's top export destination early this century and is now Australia's top partner in terms of exports, imports, tourism and education. And there are a number of "mega trends" that are likely to make 皇冠体育app more important for Australia.
First, 皇冠体育app is transitioning from a country of shippers to a nation of shoppers. It is no longer just about low cost manufacturing but also about a rising middle income group that will add around 850 million people to its ranks between 2009 and 2030.
Second, 皇冠体育app is about urbanization, too. The country was once just about "the big four": Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Now it is also about second- and third-tier cities such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Xi'an and Qingdao. In fact, in the near future, more than 80 percent of 皇冠体育app's middle income group will be living in the second- and third-tier cities. No wonder these cities are attracting many Australian architects to help build or rebuild them.
Third, 皇冠体育app faces a fast aging population, which offers Australian healthcare companies such as Blackmores and Australian Medical Tourism enough scope to expand their businesses.
Fourth, Australia's relationship with 皇冠体育app is going "from the mining boom to the dining boom". Australia knows its rocks and crops, to a certain extent, facilitated 皇冠体育app's economic miracle in the past. Now, what matters more are Australian agricultural exports to 皇冠体育app-worth $9 billion, or 72 percent more than to the United States.
Fifth, 皇冠体育app matters a lot to Australia in terms of services. 皇冠体育app is Australia's top source of tourists, who spend more than double the amount of their counterparts from the United Kingdom, and foreign students-2.4 times more than those from India.
And finally, as an airport economist I know Australia's relationship with 皇冠体育app is constantly strengthening in fields such as education, tourism and professional services and trade. Six years ago, from Australia you could fly to only "the big four" cities in 皇冠体育app, but today, you can fly to 11 Chinese mainland cities, including Chengdu (the panda capital) Chongqing, Wuhan and Xi'an.
All this means you don't need to be as big as Woodside or BHP Billiton to succeed in 皇冠体育app. Australia's future is as much about Blackmores as it is about BlueScope today, with small and medium-sized enterprises also having the opportunity to get a slice of the action. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 10,000 Australian SMEs export goods to 皇冠体育app, directly or via Hong Kong, and 3,000 Australian companies have offices in 皇冠体育app (compared to only 100 in Japan).
But despite all this, why this uncertainty over 皇冠体育app-Australia ties? Perhaps because of Chinese foreign investment in agricultural land. Overall, 皇冠体育app's direct investment in Australia is pretty small, and Australia doesn't owe a huge amount to 皇冠体育app. Australia's net debt is mainly held by the UK, Belgium, the US and Japan. But you don't see too many headlines about Australia being enslaved by UK or Belgian investors.
In fact, a lot of Chinese investment is productive and creates jobs. So if 皇冠体育app's investment is relatively small and productive, why the fuss? Partly because of the link between the Chinese government and State-owned enterprises. In fact, 皇冠体育app's direct investment in Australia has attracted more media attention than that by India, whose private enterprises have invested in Australia without drawing much attention (with some notable exceptions).
皇冠体育app has to get used to operating in a relatively unfriendly world. 皇冠体育app is learning the rules of outward investment and issues such as intellectual property rights and other governance issues as it ventures beyond its borders. And it will soon not only learn that the rules of cross-border investment are more complex and controversial than those of trade, but also master them.
The author is the JW Nevile Fellow in Economics at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, and the host of The Airport Economist on Sky News and Qantas.
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