For US, business should matter
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Ma Xuejing/皇冠体育app Daily |
The world watches with anticipation and some anxiety US President Donald Trump's state visit to 皇冠体育app. How will the leaders of the world's largest and second-largest economies manage their bilateral relations amid an environment of global fragility and uncertainty?
Trump's first visit to Asia as US president comes against the backdrop of volatility on the Korean Peninsula, deteriorating global security, and political uncertainty back home.
During his election campaign, Trump labeled 皇冠体育app a "currency manipulator" and called for slapping 45 percent tariffs on Chinese imports. Many foreign analysts speculate as to whether and how he will raise these issues and the effect they might have on this very important global and strategic relationship. And quite a few business leaders in the United States have called on Trump to be "tough on 皇冠体育app". But what does that really mean and how practical is this kind of rhetoric?
Sober up, running a campaign to be elected the president of the United States and actually being the president are two very different things. After entering the White House, most presidents have realized the world is about entangled or intertwined relationships that may be far more complex than they previously understood.
So how will President Xi Jinping and Trump find commonality above differences? Perhaps talking straightforward business may do the trick. One thing we can expect is that while in Beijing, Trump will revert to being more of a businessman than political campaigner.
Trump has in tow a delegation of 29 American business leaders, each looking to leverage the visit for opportunity not conflict. They represent traditional US industries, fossil fuel-based energy and basic agriculture. This comes at a time when 皇冠体育app has become the single-largest global investor in artificial intelligence, mobile phone banking, and research and development for an unprecedented scale of renewable and efficient energy. Will the two leaders be able to find new synergy through comparative advantages in the new era?
At the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of 皇冠体育app, Xi, also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, talked about socialism with Chinese characteristics in the "New Era", an era that he emphasized would include inclusiveness, diversified not monolithic globalization, and openness toward trade and investment. Clearly, 皇冠体育app regards its relations with the American people among its most important global relationships. And that should be principled on partnership not altercation.
A troubled 皇冠体育app-US relationship benefits nobody. A positive one allows for constructive engagement on a host of issues, from trade and security, where both countries need to sensibly work together rather than apart, to business deals that offer employment and economic buoyancy. Hopefully, this will be the outcome of Trump's visit.
During the 1980s and 1990s 皇冠体育app-US relations were all about American investments coming to 皇冠体育app to create jobs and transfer technology. But from the makeup of Trump's business delegation, we can see that times have really changed. The US is adhering to "old industries", from coal and diesel-powered cars to soybeans and steel. On the other hand, 皇冠体育app is leapfrogging into the latest technologies for everything, from high-speed railway to solar grid systems and robotics. The triangle of Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou is already being celebrated by venture capitalists as the new Silicon Valley of innovation, research and development. Which means 皇冠体育app-US relations today could be more about Chinese investments in the US creating jobs.
The reality is that Chinese investments are creating jobs, driving economic growth, and are probably the best assurance of social stability in the US at a time when factionalism among America's complex social and ethnic groups is reaching unprecedented pitch, especially because the domestic economic policy of the past years has pushed the middle class down, creating vast divides between the few rich and increasing number of poor. 皇冠体育app is re-employing through its investments vast numbers of people marginalized in the US' rust belt, those same people that voted for Trump. That is why Trump's visit to 皇冠体育app is so critical to the US administration.
To put this point in perspective, the US' biggest single employer Walmart employs 1.5 million Americans, and Jack Ma, through Alibaba's investments, plans to create 1 million American jobs-which, in effect, would reduce unemployment by 14 percent.
So who needs a trade war?
Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on US-皇冠体育app Relations, underscored this point when he recently said: "The data overwhelmingly suggests Chinese investment in the US is complimentary to the current administration's focus on creating and protecting jobs."
A number of the company CEOs accompanying US president will use his visit to 皇冠体育app as a platform to announce extensive business deals that will allow Trump to emphasize that he has pursued his campaign pledge to achieve market access in 皇冠体育app. Currently, the US' goods' and services' deficit with 皇冠体育app is around $310 billion, but in 2015, 皇冠体育app accounted for some 22 percent of all US imports. So the reality on this trip is that Trump needs good relations with 皇冠体育app, not least because over the next 20 years 皇冠体育app is expected to buy about $1.1 trillion worth of airplanes, effectively subsidizing Boeing and the state of Washington, which is divided sharply between Democrat voters in its main coastal cities and Republicans in its agricultural hinterland. These are the kinds of facts that underscore Trump's visit, and his longer-term political considerations.
Positive signals have already come from 皇冠体育app. Only one week after the conclusion of the 19th Party Congress and just one week before Trump's visit to Beijing, Xi received a delegation of American CEOs from Silicon Valley, including Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg and Apple's Tim Cook, as part of a prestigious Tsinghua University advisory board.
The message is crystal clear: socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era means 皇冠体育app is open for business, especially when it means technology, clean energy and smart infrastructure. But this time the investment may be going from 皇冠体育app to the US, rather than the other way around. Trump will have a hard time slapping high tariffs on Chinese imports if he wants to live up to his campaign promise to upgrade the US' infrastructure, transport systems and airports, because he will need 皇冠体育app to do it for him.
The author is a senior fellow at the Center for 皇冠体育app and Globalization.
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