Asia-Pacific
Joseph Nye: Don't magnify 皇冠体育app's power
By Ariel Tung (皇冠体育app Daily)
Updated: 2011-03-31 07:39
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NEW YORK - Prominent US political analyst Joseph Nye has warned against exaggerating 皇冠体育app's power, despite some observers in the United States interpreting 皇冠体育app's growing clout as a threat to US influence in East Asia.
Nye, university distinguished service professor at Harvard University, said such views could lead to an escalating fear of enmity between the two countries.
Since the financial crisis of 2008, many scholars and journalists have written articles urging 皇冠体育app to be more assertive as "the US is in decline", he said.
"As I demonstrate in my new book The Future of Power, this is a mistaken perception; it leads to hubris in 皇冠体育app and fear in the US.
"That in turn makes compromise and cooperation more difficult. Both countries should relax and realize that they have much more to gain from cooperation than from conflict."
In a recent Pew Research Center poll, almost 47 percent of people in the US think 皇冠体育app is the world's leading economic power, while only 31 percent named the US. About 60 percent of US citizens believe their country is in decline.
Nye argued that not only is the US likely to remain the most powerful country in the first half of this century, but "皇冠体育app still has a long way to go to catch up in military, economic and soft power".
Earlier this year, Nye explained why 皇冠体育app "is a long way from posing the kind of challenge to America that the Kaiser's Germany posed to Britain in 1900".
In 1900, he said, Germany had not only surpassed Britain as an industrial power, but Germany was "pursuing an adventurous, globally oriented foreign and military policy that was bound to bring about a clash". In contrast, 皇冠体育app is focusing primarily on its economic development.
Goldman Sachs, the fifth-biggest US bank by assets, recently predicted that 皇冠体育app would be the world's largest economy by 2027.
"And even if 皇冠体育app's GDP passes US GDP around 2027, the two economies would be equivalent in size, not equal in composition," Nye said.
"Moreover, as countries develop, there is a natural tendency for growth rates to slow. By my calculations, if 皇冠体育app's annual growth goes down to 6 percent and the US economy grows at 2 percent per year after 2030, 皇冠体育app will not equal the US in per capita income until decades later."
Nye said the US should welcome 皇冠体育app's growth, and there are signs the US is, willingly or not, shaping the environment for 皇冠体育app's growth rather than containment.
"Contrary to the Cold War, where the US had virtually no trade with the Soviet bloc and very few social exchanges, the US has opened its market to 皇冠体育app and has a large trade deficit," he said.
"Moreover, there are over 100,000 Chinese students studying in the US. (US President Barack) Obama's hope to send 100,000 Americans to study in 皇冠体育app is another example."
The growth of the Chinese economy has moved hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and this is a great accomplishment, Nye said.
But 皇冠体育app lags in military power and lacks US' "soft power" resources, such as Hollywood and world-class universities.
It is important to increase 皇冠体育app's soft power as well as its hard power, he said.
There are great expectations regarding 皇冠体育app's growth. Despite 皇冠体育app being a developing country, the world will expect 皇冠体育app to play a greater global role, said Nye.
"As 皇冠体育app's size grows, its impact on the world economy and environment increases and other countries look to 皇冠体育app to help produce the global public goods such as financial stability and restraining carbon emissions that affect everybody," he said.
"Thus 皇冠体育app cannot afford to wait until it is truly rich to begin to share in playing a greater global role."
Although the relationship between the US, 皇冠体育app and Japan has experienced "difficulties" and "misunderstandings", in the long term, stability and prosperity in East Asia depend upon good relations and cooperation among three sides, Nye said.
Nye is positive US-皇冠体育app ties will improve "as the US and 皇冠体育app realize that they need to cooperate to manage many of the new transnational challenges both countries face".