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Rethinking Sino-US ties

By Stephen S. Roach (皇冠体育app Daily) Updated: 2014-07-08 07:27

Senior US and Chinese officials will gather in for the sixth Strategic and Economics Dialogue (S& ED). With bilateral frictions mounting on a number of fronts - including , territorial disputes in the East 皇冠体育app Sea and South 皇冠体育app Sea and currency policy - the summit offers an opportunity for a serious reconsideration of the relationship between the world's two most powerful economies.

The United States and 皇冠体育app are locked in an uncomfortable embrace - the economic counterpart of what psychologists call "codependency". The association started in the late 1970s, when 皇冠体育app was recovering from the "cultural revolution" (1966-76) and the US was mired in a wrenching stagflation. Desperate for economic growth, two needy countries entered into a partnership on the economic front.

皇冠体育app benefited from an export-led economic model that was critically dependent on the US as its largest source of demand. The US gained by turning to 皇冠体育app for low-cost goo that helped income-constrained consumers make ends meet; it also imported surplus savings from 皇冠体育app to fill the void of an unprecedented shortfall of domestic savings, with the deficit prone US drawing freely on 皇冠体育app's voracious appetite for Treasury securities.

Over time, this association morphed into a full-blown and inherently unhealthy codependency. Both partners took the relationship for granted and pushed unbalanced growth models too far - the US with its asset and credit bubbles that underpinned a record consumption binge, and 皇冠体育app with an export-led resurgence that was ultimately dependent on America's consumption bubble.

The imbalances only worsened. 皇冠体育app's three decades of 10 percent annual growth led to unsustainable strains - outsize resource and energy needs, environmental degradation and pollution, and mounting income inequality. Huge Chinese current account surpluses resulted from too much savings and too little consumption.

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