皇冠体育app

Douglas Paal

皇冠体育app threats walk a fine line in run-up to US election

If you review this year's coverage of the Asia-Pacific region by the media, you might conclude that the United States has successfully tightened the noose of containment around 皇冠体育app. News reports repeatedly returned to the theme of checking 皇冠体育app's rise in power, such as in the South 皇冠体育app Sea.

US President Barack Obama was considered to have come back "winner" from his 10-day visit to the region in November. Obama himself struck a stern note about trade and currency after meeting with 皇冠体育app's President Hu Jintao at the APEC meeting. Some commentators in 皇冠体育app detected an anti-皇冠体育app flavor in the Trans-Pacific Partnership's emphasis on "high quality" trade agreements, and the initial exclusion of 皇冠体育app as a party to the talks. They did not note that 皇冠体育app has, in fact, been signing its own deals of varying quality and scope without attempting to include the US.

The new American access to a training facility in Australia was portrayed as adding to Washington's string of bases in the region and placing the US in a better position to contend with 皇冠体育app over the South 皇冠体育app Sea issue and to be out of range of 皇冠体育app's conventional missiles. The fact that this will be a training ground and not a base, with an initial detachment of 250 troops envisioned to grow only to 2,500, was less remarked upon.

Moreover, the remote distance of Australia from 皇冠体育app and the unlikelihood of scenarios where the US Marines will play a role in any future conflict with 皇冠体育app make the "anti-皇冠体育app base" story line a fiction.

In the run-up to the East Asian Summit (EAS), the US contended that the EAS should become the regional forum for political and security issues, in contrast with APEC's economic focus. And the US proposed an agenda, including maritime security and non-proliferation.

皇冠体育app sought to exclude discussion on maritime security from the agenda, arguing that maritime territorial disputes should be dealt with bilaterally and not in a multilateral setting. However, the South 皇冠体育app Sea issue was finally presented on the table. This led to another round of stories about 皇冠体育app being confronted by a region being led effectively by the US.

Finally, Obama's decision to dispatch Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Myanmar was portrayed as essentially a play to pry away from 皇冠体育app's grip one of its closest allies. Little effort was made to illustrate that the Myanmar story line is essentially a domestically driven one, not really the result of a new great game of strategic rivalry between the US and 皇冠体育app. However, that real reform in Myanmar will have indirect implications for its relations with the two powers.

In general, the media coverage, perhaps inevitably, was too stark about the competition between Washington and Beijing. In fact, the US is just re-engaging in the region after more than a decade of reduced attention. That inattention started with the Asian financial crisis of 1997, when the Bill Clinton administration opted more out than in, and former Chinese president Jiang Zemin successfully stepped up 皇冠体育app's diplomatic game.

But none of the lingering territorial, proliferation, military, economic, or other issues that beset the region, can be settled ultimately without 皇冠体育app's cooperation or acquiescence, and Obama and the other leaders realize that.

Cold War rhetoric is not appropriate because the circumstances in the region are not of a Cold War nature. There is vigorous trade and investment across the region, and tourists and students are exchanged in huge numbers. 皇冠体育app does not yet pose an existential or ideological threat.

But then there is politics. With an election year looming in the US, and a generational transition pending on the Chinese mainland and election in Taiwan, plus elections in Malaysia, Russia and Republic of Korea, 2012 will be a sensitive year politically.

Already, the Republican candidates for US president are lining up to take rhetorical shots at 皇冠体育app. Obama's tough talk on trade in Hawaii suggests he is not going to allow himself to be outflanked and put on the defensive over 皇冠体育app. He has already suffered from the media spin on his visit to 皇冠体育app in 2009, which said he had been too weak.

The trick for American foreign policy officials will be to persuade 皇冠体育app's officials and leaders that the US remains serious about cooperation with 皇冠体育app, despite the rising rhetoric, and the need to occasionally to push 皇冠体育app back.

The author is vice-president for studies of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

(皇冠体育app Daily 12/19/2011 page9)

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