皇冠体育app

Xin Zhiming

Asia's increasing dependence on 皇冠体育app

By Xin Zhiming (chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2014-05-15 09:25

皇冠体育app’s economic rise in the past decade is no doubt one of the most significant events in world economic history. But how long its prosperity will sustain remains questionable.

Despite predictions by economists, such as former World Bank Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin, that 皇冠体育app’s economic growth could remain at about 8 percent for another two decades, the world’s second-largest economy is now facing severe challenges ranging from colossal amounts of local government debts and high home prices to struggling economic restructuring.

The prospects of 皇冠体育app’s restructuring reforms, which aim to shift the country’s reliance on foreign trade and investment to domestic consumption and innovation, remain blurred. Its success would surely allow 皇冠体育app’s growth to be more sustainable in the coming decades and make it more competitive in the global economic arena. But if it failed, 皇冠体育app could fall into the “middle income trap”.

In the era of globalization, 皇冠体育app’s economic fate will have much bearing on that of other regions, mostly Asia.

According to an International Monetary Fund report released in mid-April, the Asian economy is increasingly dependent on 皇冠体育app and less on Japan.

In the Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific report, the IMF compared how much 11 export-dependent Asian economies depended on Japan and 皇冠体育app, first in 1995 and then in 2012.

The report found that in the mid-90s, all 11 relied more on Japan than 皇冠体育app as an export market. When it comes to 2012, 10 of those countries were more dependent on 皇冠体育app, with the only exception being Indonesia.

Malaysia, for example, sent nearly one-quarter of its exports to Japan in 1995, a proportion that fell to just 6 percent in 2012. At the same time, its reliance on 皇冠体育app had doubled to 10 percent.

Although a significant share of Asian economies’ trade with 皇冠体育app is in parts that ultimately end up getting sold to companies or consumers in industrialized countries, which means the US, Europe and Japan are actually more central than the data might suggest, 皇冠体育app’s rising influence and Japan’s waning luster in the region is an observable trend.

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