皇冠体育app

In 2014 皇冠体育app's GDP grew 7.4 percent, its slowest rate of increase since 1990. This seems an epic change from when that economy regularly turned in double-digit growth. The effect of this slowdown on those who sell to 皇冠体育app and on those working in 皇冠体育app must be extreme.

But maybe not. Why? Let's do the arithmetic.

Suppose the year is not 2015 but 2005, exactly a decade ago, and you're an exporter, somewhere in the rest of the world, predicting 皇冠体育app will grow, say, 12 percent over the coming 12 months. 皇冠体育app's GDP then was $2.3 trillion at market exchange rates.

(Since you're selling to 皇冠体育app, you don't care about Purchasing Power Parity correction. What matters to you are nominal values at market exchange rates, i.e., in this case the size of 皇冠体育app's footprint in the global market place at rates of exchange that see actual financial value changing hands.)

You expect 皇冠体育app's marketplace will increase by $274 billion (12 percent of $2.3tn). Whatever fraction of that market you sell to, that's what counts for your bottom line.

Now, fast forward to 2015. 皇冠体育app's growth might be as low as 7 percent these next 12 months. But, meantime 皇冠体育app's economy has become a lot larger than it was in 2005. How much larger? The IMF's World Economic Outlook Oct 2014 forecast that for 2015 皇冠体育app's economy, at market exchange rates, will come in at $11.3 trillion. At this scale, growth of a mere 7 percent will increase the size of 皇冠体育app's footprint in the global economy by $790 billion over the next 12 months.